College Football Bowl Picks - Week Two
Welcome back everyone for the second week of bowl season predictions. The first week brought a couple surprises and perhaps one of the best games we'll see in the post-season. Kudos to Southern Mississippi for coming up absolutely humongous in the second half and overtime period. Any kicker that has the last name of "Barefoot" (Southern Miss) is fine by me. Gartrell Johnson of Colorado State did himself wonders with that nice little 285 yard explosion against Fresno State. He went from being likely undrafted to landing himself in the 5th-7th range. The kid just doesn't give up, and scouts love that.
I went 3-2 last week, but I like my picks a lot this week, so watch out!
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl - San Diego, CA - Tuesday, 8:00 pm
#9 Boise State (12-0, 8-0 WAC) vs. #11 TCU (10-2, 7-1 MWC)
Boise State is the ultimate blue-collar team. Even though they're undefeated, I don't think many give them the respect they deserve. Kellen Moore is a fantastic young quarterback. The left-handed freshman transitioned the Broncos from a pure running team to a great passing squad. Let's not forget, when it comes time for the bowl game, this team performs in a big way. Ask Oklahoma about that two seasons ago in the "Statue of Liberty" game. Unfortunately for Boise State, it's Ian Johnson's last game. A tremendous runner early in his career, he's been a leader this season while taking a smaller role. A class individual.
If there's one word to describe the TCU Horned Frogs, it's defense. Minus a loss to Oklahoma, the most points TCU have allowed this season is 14. Even in the loss to the Sooners, they only allowed 35 points to a team that averaged 50 in their sleep. TCU's other loss, a 13-10 decision to undefeated Utah. On defense they're led by senior linebacker Jason Phillips. He's got 79 tackles this season. Aaron Brown hasn't put up a bunch of yards on the ground this season, but I think Boise State can be rushed on in a big way. I like him to have a big game.
Pick: TCU 26, Boise State 24
MVP: HB Aaron Brown, TCU
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl - Honolulu, HI - Tuesday, 8:00 pm
Notre Dame (6-6, Independent) vs. Hawaii (7-6, 5-3 WAC)
Just think, it was such a long time ago when Notre Dame was 4-1, and I remember a major college football writer declared that the Irish would in fact win the remainder of their games and secure a spot in the Fiesta Bowl. A bit of wishful thinking, were we? How's 2-5 sound as opposed to 7-0, because that is the Notre Dame reality in 2008. Don't get me wrong, they made some strides this past season. The loss to Syracuse at home is unforgivable, but they showed me some sparks in the loss to North Carolina. Remember, Jimmy Clausen is just a sophomore. He's been inconsistent, but any kid that can put up 20 touchdowns as a second year player will make me put a little faith in the future. There's a big leap between the sophomore and junior season, and we saw one big time this season with one quarterback:
Yards Comp. % TD INT
2007: 3,303 65.1 24 18
2008: 3,345 77.6 32 7
If you couldn't tell by the stats, that's Texas QB Colt McCoy. As for Clausen? He's thrown for 2,771 yards completing 59.4 percent of his passes for 20 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. I'm not saying he will make the leap, but the talent is obviously there.
Hawaii was a bit of a grab bag this season. New head coach, basically entire new offensive unit. How would they respond? Right out of the gate, not so well. After four games they amassed a 1-3 record, and it wasn't until a big overtime victory over Fresno State that really shook start their season. After trying out three different quarterbacks, the Warriors finally found their man in Greg Alexander. The junior started the final six games of the season and threw for 12 touchdowns as opposed to just two interceptions.
As for this game? Something just tells me Notre Dame ends their winless streak in bowls here, even though it's in Honolulu. I like Jimmy Clausen to have a big day.
Pick: Notre Dame 36, Hawaii 21
MVP: QB Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame
Motor City Bowl - Detroit, MI - Friday, 7:30 pm
Florida Atlantic (6-6, 4-3 Sun Belt) vs. Central Michigan (8-4, 6-2 MAC)
It's teams like Florida Atlantic that make bowl season a little ridiculous. They were average in the worst conference in Division FBS, which makes it completely obvious why the Owls would participate in a bowl game. If you didn't realize that was sarcasm, go back and read it over again. I did enough of this griping about the Memphis team last week, so I won't go down that avenue again. But I will say Memphis was completely outclassed by South Florida (Personal victory). Florida Atlantic was the sexy pick to be a surprise squad this year, but it never came to fruition. The Owls can thank junior quarterback Rusty Smith for that. As a sophomore he threw 32 touchdowns and only nine interceptions. But this year, he has regressed, throwing for just 22 scores and 14 interceptions.
Central Michigan did not end the season well. Heading in to a winner-take-all battle with Ball State, the Chippewas were 8-2, and undefeated in conference. With a win, they likely would have catapulted themselves into the Top 25 and into control of the MAC. But they followed a disappointing loss to the Cardinals with a terrible loss to Eastern Michigan. Not the type of response you would hope for. With that being said, I still think Central Michigan QB Dan LeFevour is one of the best in the nation. His numbers are down from his fantastic sophomore season, but he's still extremely effective, and opposing teams have to game plan against his dual-threat ability. The Chippewas spread offense allowed LeFevour to find some space if he's got nobody open which turns in to a heck of a lot of rushing yards.
These are both very good offenses, so I have to give the edge to the team with the better defense.
Pick: Central Michigan 38, Florida Atlantic 30
MVP: HB Ontario Sneed, Central Michigan
Meineke Car Care Bowl - Charlotte, NC - Saturday 1:00 pm
West Virginia (8-4, 5-2 Big East) vs. North Carolina (8-4, 4-4 ACC)
The Big East as a whole was completely disappointing this season. West Virginia came out of the gates slow, South Florida fell off the map, and Pittsburgh always got in their own way. If it wasn't for Cincinnati going on a win streak at the end of the season this may have been the weakest big conference in a long time. However, as the season went on West Virginia started getting back on track as a tough out for any team that faced them. Running back Noel Devine had a very quiet 1,228 yard season. Then there's the rock steady Pat White. He had his typical season throwing for 1,510 and rushing for 909 yards. He's a talented kid that will make it to the next level, just not as a quarterback.
North Carolina had a tremendous start. A lot of praise needs to go to Butch Davis for reviving this program. I think the season-ending injury to WR Brandon Tate might have been the single biggest injury to any team in the nation. He made that group exciting and challenged opposing teams to stop him. Another crippling injury to the Tar Heels was when QB T.J. Yates went down, forcing junior Cameron Sexton in to the lineup. Yates is back for this bowl game, and he'll need to find talented WR Hakeem Nicks early and often to have a chance.
Pat White is 3-0 in bowl games in his career. He just brings his game to another level.
Pick: West Virginia 31, North Carolina 27
MVP: QB Pat White, West Virginia
Champs Sports Bowl - Orlando, FL - Saturday, 4:30 pm
Wisconsin (7-5, 3-5 Big Ten) vs. Florida State (8-4, 5-3 ACC)
With all respect to Lee Evans and his proclamation that Wisconsin is "due" for a bowl victory on the Lee Evans Show this past week, I don't think the Badgers have much of a chance. QB Allan Evridge and his poor decision making crippled the season for Wisconsin, and they didn't switch him out until it was too late. Dustin Sherer replaced him and led the Badgers to a 4-2 record as starter. Perhaps the most impressive victory in that stretch, a 36-35 win over Division FCS Cal Poly. Again, the whole sarcasm thing.
Opposite them are the Florida State Seminoles. They had a bounce back season, and are very young as well. So once Tim Tebow leaves Florida they may actually be able to get out of the Gators' shadow. A surprising emphasis on the running game has aided the Seminoles learning process. That mixed with a fantastic, speedy defense. But Florida State is susceptible to the big play. The 'Noles historically perform way above expectations in bowl games.
I swear, if I hear the announcers say the fact that Myron Rolle and Christian Ponder both graduated in two and a half years one more time, I may take my guitar controller and axe it through my television.
Pick: Florida State 29, Wisconsin 16
MVP: HB Antone Smith, Florida State
Emerald Bowl - San Francisco, CA - Saturday, 8:00 pm
Miami (FL) (7-5, 4-4 ACC) vs. California (8-4, 6-3 Pac-10)
I'd like to personally thank Miami for taking the lead on being the Florida school with the most suspended players for their bowl game, because Florida State has held that honor for quite some time. The perfect word for the Hurricanes this season, erratic. You never knew what you would get from this team every single game. Behind center, promising freshman Jacory Harris gets the start. But the 'Canes will be short-handed so Harris will have to play above and beyond expectations in this bowl game.
Cal is highlighted by an impressive sophomore running back. Jahvid Best torched both Stanford and Washington for 512 total yards on just 38 carries. That's 13.5 yards per carry! This kid ended the season on fire, and I don't know that Miami can stop him. The very same Miami that allowed 472 yards on the ground to Georgia Tech just a month ago.
Pick: Cal 33, Miami 16
MVP: HB Jahvid Best, Cal
Independence Bowl - Shreveport, LA - Sunday, 8:15 pm
Northern Illinois (6-6, 5-3 MAC) vs. Louisiana Tech (7-5, 5-3 WAC)
I'll be honest with you, this is probably the most bland of all the bowl games on the schedule. But if there's one player to watch for it's Northern Illinois defensive end Larry English. The "consensus" is that he'll have to switch to a 3-4 outside linebacker in the NFL because of his size (6-3, 255). I say let the kid play the position he's best out. There's smaller ends out there that have had success, it just boggles my mind why English would be more effective at a position he hasn't played consistently.
Louisiana Tech depends on running back Daniel Porter for the majority of their offense. On the season, he's accumulated 1,086 yards and ripping off 5.3 yards per carry.
Past that, this is not an interesting game. Another reason why I hate the fact that there's 34 bowl games. So get excited!
Pick: Louisiana Tech 24, Northern Illinois 13
MVP: HB Patrick Jackson, Louisiana Tech
